With just two weeks remaining before Election Day, candidates across the country are delivering their final appeals to voters who remain wavering or undecided. In Michigan, the closing sprint has put an especially sharp focus on the Senate contest between Republican nominee Mike Rogers and Democrat nominee Abdul El-Sayed.

The race could ultimately decide which party controls the Senate, making every late shift in Michigan consequential. Rogers has kept his closing case blunt, arguing that El-Sayed is a dangerous conman whose loyalties are with America's enemies rather than Michigan voters.

Rogers also argues that Michigan is being made great again under President Trump's leadership and that El-Sayed would work to reverse that direction if elected. El-Sayed's own closing argument, meanwhile, has done little to quiet the criticism and has instead reinforced the concerns driving Rogers' attack.

Since the August 4 Michigan primary, polling has shown a close race. Most of El-Sayed's measured advantages have remained within the margin of error, while Rogers has steadily worked to attract disaffected Democrat voters.

Some of those voters have appeared alongside Rogers at campaign events and in television advertisements. Their presence has given his campaign visible examples of Democrats willing to break with their party's Senate nominee.

There has also been a concerted effort among some prominent Democrats to address voters who dislike El-Sayed but still cannot bring themselves to support Rogers. Those voters have been encouraged to leave the circle beside the name of the candidate backed by DSA blank.

For Democrats supporting El-Sayed, warnings from respected pollsters and data analysts carry particular weight. Those observers have raised the possibility that surveys are once again underestimating Republican support, a serious concern in a contest already separated by narrow margins.

The primary offers another reason for caution. Nearly every July poll showed El-Sayed comfortably defeating Democrat Rep. Haley Stevens (MI-11), yet the final result was far tighter than those surveys had suggested.

More than 1.5 million votes were cast in the Democrat Senate primary. El-Sayed won by fewer than 13,000 votes, barely prevailing in a contest that became a nail biting finish rather than the comfortable victory suggested by the polling.

That backdrop gave added weight to comments Monday from New York Times national reporter Jeremy Peters. Peters, a Michigan native who has followed the Senate race closely, discussed what he has seen and heard during an appearance on Morning Joe.

“One of the factors that is really worth paying closer attention to are the number of Democrats, lifelong Jewish Democrats, especially in the Detroit suburbs, who are saying for the first time in their lives they’re voting Republican,” Peters said. “That’s a big deal.”

Peters also reported Monday that polls could be overstating El-Sayed's chances by oversampling college-educated voters. Such a sampling problem could leave Rogers with more support than current surveys are capturing.

The reporter added that he has heard some people are reluctant to tell pollsters they plan to vote for a Republican for the first time in their lives. That reluctance could matter in a close race where even a modest polling miss would carry major consequences.

The situation somewhat resembles previous election cycles involving Trump, when Republican voters were either hesitant to tell pollsters they supported Donald Trump or declined to participate in surveys. This time, however, the reluctant voters described by Peters are Democrats confronting a difficult choice in the Michigan Senate contest.

Those Democrats may be willing to acknowledge their support for Rogers only to themselves, leaving pollsters without a clear picture of their intentions. Combined with the primary polling miss and Rogers' outreach to disaffected Democrats, Peters' report delivers another unwelcome warning for El-Sayed as voting approaches.

The stakes extend beyond Michigan. An editor's note accompanying the report said the 2026 midterms will determine the fate of President Trump's America First agenda and argued that Republicans must retain control of both chambers of Congress.

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